Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Land Use Dynamics in Osun River Basin Nigeria
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.64238/geopuc.2025.160Palavras-chave:
Mudanças climáticas, Dinâmica do uso da terra, Sensoriamento remoto, Índice de condição da vegetação, Bacia do rio Osun, Desenvolvimento sustentávelResumo
Compreender profundamente como as mudanças climáticas moldam a dinâmica do uso e cobertura da terra (UCT) é vital para garantir a gestão sustentável das bacias hidrográficas, especialmente em ambientes sensíveis como a Bacia do Rio Osun (BRO) no sudoeste da Nigéria. Esta pesquisa explora as tendências espaço-temporais nas transformações do UCT na BRO entre 2002 e 2022 e examina criticamente como fatores climáticos essenciais, incluindo temperatura, precipitação e o Índice de Condição da Vegetação (ICV), influenciam essas mudanças. Imagens multitemporais de satélite Landsat de 2002, 2012 e 2022, com resolução de 30 m, foram analisadas utilizando técnicas de classificação supervisionada e detecção de mudanças em um ambiente SIG, complementadas por dados de precipitação e temperatura derivados do CHIRPS e MODIS. Os resultados revelam transformações significativas do UCT ao longo das duas décadas, com as áreas urbanizadas expandindo-se em mais de 154%, as superfícies expostas aumentando em aproximadamente 19%, enquanto as áreas de cultivo e florestais diminuíram em 25% e 6%, respectivamente. O modelo de Regressão Linear Múltipla (RLM) mostrou que as variáveis climáticas, em conjunto, explicam cerca de 78% da variância na expansão da área construída (R² = 0,78, p < 0,001). A temperatura emergiu como o preditor positivo mais forte, indicando que um aumento de 1 °C poderia resultar em um acréscimo de aproximadamente 120 km² de área construída, enquanto a precipitação demonstrou um efeito estabilizador, sustentando a cobertura vegetal. A análise dos padrões espaciais de precipitação e do Índice de Cobertura Vegetal (ICV) revelou ainda um declínio progressivo na saúde da vegetação, com estresse acentuado observado nas regiões central e norte da bacia, impulsionado pelo aumento das temperaturas, precipitação irregular e intensificação de atividades antropogênicas, como urbanização, desmatamento e manejo insustentável da terra. Essas pressões combinadas têm implicações profundas para a produtividade agrícola, a conservação da biodiversidade e a sustentabilidade dos recursos hídricos na bacia.
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Copyright (c) 2025 Olufemi Sunday Durowoju, Colbert Mutiso Jackson, Samuel Adewale Adelabu, Abraham Matamanda, Kayode Julius Samuel, Samuel Yakubu, Abigail Temitope Adeniji
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